Tuesday 24 March 2015

Gold Trades Flat Amid Lack Of Cues

Lacks of fresh cues are keeping gold under check today. MCX Gold futures remainedsteady today as the global prices consolidated around a three week high mark. Weakness inUS dollar has supported gold in last few days. The yellow metal recovered from its fourmonth lows last week and jumped along with equities as the FOMC statement removed the word“patient” regarding when to decide to raise interest rates. However, thestatement also pointed out some weaker US economic data recently, indicating that the Fedmay not be able to raise interest rates as soon as it would have liked. The commodity isapproaching its 50 day Exponential Moving Average, currently placed around $1199 mark. TheCOMEX Gold futures are quoting at $1187.10 per ounce, down 60 cents per ounce on the day.MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 26192 per 10 grams on the day, down Rs 6 per 10 gramson the day.
The Euro is quoting around 1.0900 mark against the US dollar as markets eyeddevelopments on the Greece front. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the GermanChancellor Angela Merkel failed to provide much of cues for the currency after theiryesterday’s meeting. Merkel said she wanted to see the Greek economy grow whileTsipras said it was better to talk with each other than about each other. Markets remainconcerned about the showoff between these two nations over Greece's efforts to renegotiatethe terms of its international bailout. However, time being the Euro seems to be holdingup amid lack of any fresh news on its debt row.
Gold managed to extend the Fed induced gains amid good follow up buying last week. Theglobal economic recovery remains fragile because of significant risks, according toChristine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund, stated media reports.One such risk emanates from the expected tightening of US monetary policy at a time whenmost other countries are easing monetary conditions. If not well managed, thisasynchronous monetary policy may trigger excessive volatility in global financial markets.
Another risk is the strengthening US dollar and its possible impact on emerging marketeconomies. These countries could be vulnerable because many of their banks and companieshave sharply increased their borrowing in dollars over the past five years. A further riskis a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in Japan and in the Euro Area –although we are beginning to see signs of an improvement in activity and inflationexpectations in the Euro Area.
Gold speculators and large futures traders continued to trim their gold bullish betslast week as gold positions fell for a seventh consecutive week, according to the latestCommitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission(CFTC) on Friday. The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded bylarge speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of +53,093 contracts in the datareported through March 17th. This was a weekly change of -28,799 contracts. The overallgold speculative longs are now at their lowest standing since January 21st 2014.

Monday 23 March 2015

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Continued demand worries and lack of speculative buying hit gold futures today after asharp surge in the prices last week. The yellow metal recovered from its four month lowslast week and jumped along with equities as the FOMC statement removed the word“patient” regarding when to decide to raise interest rates. However, thestatement also pointed out some weaker US economic data recently, indicating that the Fedmay not be able to raise interest rates as soon as it would have liked. While gold edgedup afterwards, the start of a new week has triggered a familiar bout of nervousness forgold traders. The COMEX Gold futures are quoting at $1182 per ounce, down $2.60 per ounceon the day. MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 26105 per 10 grams on the day, down Rs 77per 10 grams on the day.
Gold managed to extend the Fed induced gains amid good follow up buying last week. Theglobal economic recovery remains fragile because of significant risks, according toChristine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund, stated media reports.One such risk emanates from the expected tightening of US monetary policy at a time whenmost other countries are easing monetary conditions. If not well managed, thisasynchronous monetary policy may trigger excessive volatility in global financial markets.
Another risk is the strengthening US dollar and its possible impact on emerging marketeconomies. These countries could be vulnerable because many of their banks and companieshave sharply increased their borrowing in dollars over the past five years. A further riskis a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in Japan and in the Euro Area –although we are beginning to see signs of an improvement in activity and inflationexpectations in the Euro Area.
Gold speculators and large futures traders continued to trim their gold bullish betslast week as gold positions fell for a seventh consecutive week, according to the latestCommitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission(CFTC) on Friday. The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded bylarge speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of +53,093 contracts in the datareported through March 17th. This was a weekly change of -28,799 contracts. The overallgold speculative longs are now at their lowest standing since January 21st 2014.

Friday 20 March 2015

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Gold Buoyed On Follow Up Buying, MCX Futures Test Rs 26K

Gold stayed elevated today on follow up buying. The metal approached its two week highstoday. Demand worries have ensured that the metal does not extend a smart rally post theUS FOMC meet earlier this week. On Wednesday, the COMEX Gold futures jumped along withequities as the FOMC statement removed the word “patient” regarding when todecide to raise interest rates. However, the statement also pointed out some weaker USeconomic data recently, indicating that the Fed may not be able to raise interest rates assoon as it would have liked. The COMEX gold futures had dropped under $1150 per ounce tomark another four month low earlier.
A strong wave of buying lifted the metal from these levels though the counterconsistently failed to hold on above $1170 per ounce mark. The COMEX Gold futures arequoting at $1175 per ounce, up $5 per ounce on the day. A mixed outing in the Asian stocksand weakness in crude oil prices are keeping a tab on the yellow metal. MCX Gold futuresare trading at Rs 25977 per 10 grams on the day, up Rs 1 per 10 grams on the day. Thecounter hit a high above the critical Rs 26k per 10 grams mark.
The global economic recovery remains fragile because of significant risks, according toChristine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund, stated media reports.One such risk emanates from the expected tightening of US monetary policy at a time whenmost other countries are easing monetary conditions. If not well managed, thisasynchronous monetary policy may trigger excessive volatility in global financial markets.Another risk is the strengthening US dollar and its possible impact on emerging marketeconomies. These countries could be vulnerable because many of their banks and companieshave sharply increased their borrowing in dollars over the past five years. A further riskis a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in Japan and in the Euro Area –although we are beginning to see signs of an improvement in activity and inflationexpectations in the Euro Area.
Gold soared Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee indicated a slower paceof rate hikes, following the removal of the word “patient” from its policystatement. Stocks also jumped with the Dow surging 1.3%, to close at 18,076.19, aftertrading down 100 points just before the statement’s release. Productivity in the USeconomy has been disappointingly low, Yellen noted. The bright side is that lowproductivity means more workers are needed to produce the output demanded, she stated. Sheexpects productivity to pick up in the medium term though.
Demand worries continue to haunt gold and speculative buying is taking a backseat. Goldspeculators and large futures traders continued to decrease their gold bullish bets lastweek for a sixth consecutive week and brought the overall bullish level to its lowestpoint since November, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released bythe Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. The non-commercial futurescontracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled anet position of 81,892 contracts in the data reported through March 10th. This was aweekly change of -33,928 contracts from the previous week’s total of 115,820 netcontracts that was registered on March 3rd.

Thursday 19 March 2015

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Demand Worries Cap Gold After Latest Jump

Gold dropped from its highs today as demand worries ensured that the metal does notextend a smart rally in the last session. The COMEX Gold futures jumped along withequities last night. The FOMC statement removed the word “patient” regardingwhen to decide to raise interest rates. However, the statement also pointed out someweaker US economic data recently, indicating that the Fed may not be able to raiseinterest rates as soon as it would have liked. The COMEX gold futures had dropped under$1150 per ounce to mark another four month low.
A strong wave of buying lifted the metal from these levels though the counter failed tohold on above $1170 per ounce mark today. The COMEX Gold futures are quoting at $1160 perounce, still up $9 per ounce on the day though the intraday moves have seen the metal dropby more than 10 dollars. MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 25816 per 10 grams on the day,up Rs 179 per 10 grams or around 0.70% on the day. The counter rose to an intraday highnear Rs 25950 per 10 grams mark earlier.
Gold soared Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee indicated a slower paceof rate hikes, following the removal of the word “patient” from its policystatement. Stocks also jumped with the Dow surging 1.3%, to close at 18,076.19, aftertrading down 100 points just before the statement’s release. Productivity in the USeconomy has been disappointingly low, Yellen noted. The bright side is that lowproductivity means more workers are needed to produce the output demanded, she stated. Sheexpects productivity to pick up in the medium term though.
However, demand worries continue to haunt gold and speculative buying is taking abackseat. Gold speculators and large futures traders continued to decrease their goldbullish bets last week for a sixth consecutive week and brought the overall bullish levelto its lowest point since November, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT)data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. Thenon-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators andhedge funds, totaled a net position of 81,892 contracts in the data reported through March10th. This was a weekly change of -33,928 contracts from the previous week’s total of115,820 net contracts that was registered on March 3rd.

MCX Gold Off Intraday Highs After Nearing Rs 26K

MCX Gold closed in on Rs 26000 per 10 grams mark today as investors eyed rather dovishcues from the latest FOMC meeting yesterday. The COMEX Gold futures jumped along withequities last night. The FOMC statement removed the word “patient” regardingwhen to decide to raise interest rates. However, the statement also pointed out someweaker US economic data recently, indicating that the Fed may not be able to raiseinterest rates as soon as it would have liked. The COMEX gold futures had dropped under$1150 per ounce to mark another four month low. However, a strong wave of buying liftedthe metal from these levels and the COMEX Gold futures are quoting at $1172 per ounce, up$21 per ounce on the day. MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 25914 per 10 grams on theday, up Rs 277 per 10 grams or around 1% on the day.
US stocks closed higher Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee indicated aslower pace of rate hikes, following the removal of the word “patient” from itspolicy statement. The S&P 500 soared 1.2%, to close at 2,099.42, with all 10 sectorsfinishing higher on the day. The Dow surged 1.3%, to close at 18,076.19, after tradingdown 100 points just before the statement’s release. Productivity in the US economyhas been disappointingly low, Yellen noted. The bright side is that low productivity meansmore workers are needed to produce the output demanded, she stated. She expectsproductivity to pick up in the medium term though.
Gold speculators and large futures traders continued to decrease their gold bullishbets last week for a sixth consecutive week and brought the overall bullish level to itslowest point since November, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) datareleased by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. The non-commercialfutures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds,totaled a net position of 81,892 contracts in the data reported through March 10th. Thiswas a weekly change of -33,928 contracts from the previous week’s total of 115,820net contracts that was registered on March 3rd.
India imported gold worth about US$ 26 billion during the April-December period of thecurrent fiscal, Parliament was informed. In a written reply to a query in the Rajya Sabha,Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha said 664.29 tonnes of gold worth over US$ 25.74billion was imported during April- December period of 2014-15. The country exported 38.11tonnes of gold during the nine month period, worth US$ 1.55 billion.

Wednesday 18 March 2015

LME Inventories Data

Metals  Tonnes  Change 
Aluminum 3942800 35425
Copper 342200 4625
Nickel 432120 3210
Lead 225825 -1800
Zinc 533650 -2925

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Gold Gives Up As Investors Fret Over Fe

Gold seesawed today as investors eyed the FOMC meeting outcome later on tonight. TheCOMEX gold futures fell under $1150 per ounce in Asia following a continued firm undertonein the US dollar to mark another four month low. Indian demand is thin as buyers arewatching the prices anxiously and are refraining from heavy purchases. The overallmovement remains choppy. This is causing speculators in world markets to go easy on longstoo. The COMEX Gold futures are quoting at $1147 per ounce, down $1 per ounce on the day.MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 25590 per 10 grams on the day, down Rs 27 per 10 gramson the day. The counter recovered from an intraday low of Rs 25500 per 10 grams.
Gold was little changed in US trading last night. US indexes mostly fell Tuesday as oilcontinued to drop and commodities stayed mostly under pressure. Investors fretted overwhen the Federal Reserve will raise a key borrowing rate. The Fed kicked off a two-daymeeting Tuesday to discuss rates, and will release a policy statement Wednesday. Theyellow metal edged up mildly earlier this week but the latest turnaround has indicated thefragility of the upmove.
The Indian Rupee firmed up further today. The INR is gaining in the current week astraders eyed the recent narrowing of the trade deficit. The local currency fell to its twomonth low above 63 per US dollar mark last week. India’s trade deficit narrowed to$6.8 billion in February as oil imports declined by over 55% from a month earlier. Thishas kept the rupee protected even as the US dollar soared to fresh highs against a numberof emerging market currencies. The Rupee closed around 62.69 mark in local spot markets,up 3 paise on the day.
Gold speculators and large futures traders continued to decrease their gold bullishbets last week for a sixth consecutive week and brought the overall bullish level to itslowest point since November, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) datareleased by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. The non-commercialfutures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds,totaled a net position of 81,892 contracts in the data reported through March 10th. Thiswas a weekly change of -33,928 contracts from the previous week’s total of 115,820net contracts that was registered on March 3rd.

Indian Rupee: To Reverse Decline As Dollar Wanes

Rupee could trim some of its previous losses against the US dollar as the greenback eases from its 12 year high versus the euro. The Federal Reserve backed away from its pledge to be patient at the end of the two day meet on Wednesday, a strong signal that the central bank will hike interest rates in July or September. The move to remove the patient phrase came amid concerns about the rapid rise in the U.S. dollar, which touched 12-year highs against the euro this week. Rupee ended little changed at 62.69per dollar compared with its previous close of 62.70.
Local markets dropped yesterday. IT stocks led decline as key benchmark indices edged lower amid concerns the US Federal Reserve will indicate at the conclusion of a two-day monetary policy meeting, that it will begin raising interest rates in the United States this summer. Higher US borrowing costs could damp inflows into emerging-market equities. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell 114.26 points or 0.4% to settle at 28,622.12.
The credit growth for Scheduled commercial banks' (SCBs) eased to 10.2% as on 06 March 2015, while continuing to be in the range of 10-11% for last eight months. Non-food credit, accounting for 98.5% of the share of the total credit, grew 10.4% to Rs 64262.6 billion on 06 March 2015. The overall credit-deposit ratio declined to 76.3% as on 06 March 2015 from the credit-deposit ratio of 77.3% a year ago.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said growth prospects in the major economies look slightly better than its previous assessment in November and called for a balanced policy to ensure sustainable growth.
Gold slipped from its recent highs amid a continued firm undertone in the US dollar. The overall movement remains choppy. This is causing speculators in world markets to go easy on longs too. Crude oil futures edged lower on mounting worries over rising oil supplies.
In the global currency market, the dollar nursed hefty losses on Thursday having suffered its biggest one-day fall in six years after the Federal Reserve struck a dovish tone on interest rates while highlighting the currency's drag on U.S. exports.

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